ObservatoryThe Weekly Observatory

The Weekly Observatory, June 16, 2023

A weekly report monitoring media and periodicals’ leaks on Libyan affairs, issued by the Libyan Center for Security and Military Studies



In this paper , we seek to shed light on a summary of the current political events during the previous period , and we aim to read an analytical view of some positions , and try to understand their context and present them to those interested , to contribute and raise awareness about the events and their developments.


Bouznika consultations and reach consensus

with The expiration of the third week of Morocco hosting the consultations of the Committee (6 + 6), announce Completion of electoral laws and their unanimous adoption by Before the members of the inter-committee The State House and the House of Representatives except that the Declaration of Consensus of the Joint Commission and the conclusion, Its actions were rejected by the House of Representatives and the State, Aqila Saleh and Khaled Al-Mashri were expected to attend the announcement ceremony. However, they left without confirming their support for the committee’s outputs .

dialectical laws

Committee concluded ( 6 + 6 ) in Bouznika to announce their agreement on two electoral laws Parliament presidential, as Among its agreements is that none of the controversial figures should be targeted for exclusion from the elections. as agreed to be elections Parliament Null if it is not possible to hold presidential elections . In an argumentative move, Article 85 of the laws states: That “no elections before allowing deputies and the state forming a new government and Article 12 that the holding of elections shall not be simultaneous between the first round and the parliamentary one, and that in the event of the failure of the presidential elections, the parliamentary elections will be considered as nothing. What prompted some activists to suggest that the purpose of this step was to overthrow the regime With the bear Without Procedure elections .

In a first of its kind, The Presidential Elections Law stipulates that candidates must go through two rounds, regardless of the percentage won by any candidate. The aim is to facilitate the renunciation of foreign nationalities by dual nationals if they pass the second round, rather than the renunciation of foreign nationality. coupled with by running Basically .

Article 4 of the presidential election clause stipulates that a candidate is considered to have resigned by force of law from his job once he is explained whether he is civilian or military. Thus, the committee has overcome the dispute over issues that hindered consensus between the two chambers regarding electoral laws for more than a year and a half. It is the status of candidates of dual citizenship and military personnel .


  • Locally, 61 members of the House of Representatives denounced, in a statement, what they described as the committee’s transgression of the tasks entrusted to it, justifying their refusal to increase the members of the new House of Representatives. Loaded Responsibility of the speaker and his two deputies, This was after announcing the committee’s agreement to increase the number of 97 council seats deputies and formation council for elders It has ninety members. It also issued 54 members council The state issued a statement rejecting the outputs The Commission deemed invalid and unconstitutional according characterize them , calling on civil society institutions, parties and organizations to reject it .

preliminary reading It seemed to many that a continuation The political path faltered that was address recently Council members refused For the outputs of the committee is A desire to remain in the scene and preserve the privileges associated with membership in both chambers . However, a closer look at the current political scene reveals that the House of Representatives’ rejection of the committee’s outputs It is a political expression It is clear to the voice of Haftar, who remained present in the parliament through the largest bloc that, shortly before, suspended a president charged government An alternative to the national unity government, Fathi Bashagha, and refer it for investigation .

Reservation of the outputs of the Committee ( 6 + 6 ) coincided With talk of rapprochement between Haftar And the bear And the closeness of reaching an agreement that requires a cabinet reshuffle in the unity government to accommodate Representative ministers Haftar, It is context It seems It has international support, especially the United States of America Which believes that this type of understanding is most appropriate to impose a state of government stability for the elections to take place under her supervision without threats a wish, as that the two parties are the most capable of disrupting the elections, This means that their agreement makes it more likely that the elections will be held and successful .

from his side, The Speaker of Parliament , Aqila Saleh, said after the start of the parliament session live, that he did not formally receive any law from the committee ,” realizing that it is only Look out on the draft, and adding, Parliament is obligated to issue electoral laws as it came from the ( 6 + 6 ) committee,” denying the eligibility of the State Council and the House of Representatives to sign the Abu Zneika Agreement, and rejecting the two-round election law for the president, describing that whoever wants that wants to thwart the entitlement. And calling for the return of those who lose the presidential race to their previous work before running for office, Whether the candidate is civilian or military , according to his description .

  • Internationally , the countries of America and Britain welcomed it France and Italy and Germany to invite the UN mission to resolve the existing differences regarding electoral laws, At the time, it praised the efforts of the committee (6 + 6) preacher in separate statements, To facilitate the process of handling disputed issues in electoral laws and to enable equal opportunities for all candidates.

Al-Mishri also held a meeting in Tripoli that included 10 ambassadors and international officials, In the presence of the Chairman of the Committee ( 6 + 6 ) on behalf of the State Council, they confirmed necessity update this path set up map road clear to hold elections, according to what It was reported by the council .

  • And in the Arab world, the UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain welcomed it and council Gulf cooperation And the Arab Parliament to announce the Committee for the Preparation of Electoral Laws (6 + 6) the agreement of its members on the laws regulating the presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled for the end of the current year. At the conclusion of its meetings in the Moroccan city of Bouznika .
  • As for the mission , its position expresses a state of confusion and even contradiction after it encouraged the beginning of the work of the committee and sponsored its dialogues, and then after reaching an agreement well defined Through the National Assembly Election Law And the election of the head of state showed the mission her reservation beginning The president did not attend the announcement ceremony in Bouznika and finish In its statement in which it had reservations about the results, it called on the members of the committee to reach greater agreement with the various Libyan institutions, and announced that it had launched consultations in order to address the shortcomings of the laws as well. stated in the statement . It is a statement It raises questions, especially since the work of the committee is a purely technical work concerned with drafting laws in agreement among its members, as stipulated in the Thirteenth Constitutional Amendment .

maybe Consider the position of the mission out of her realization for a trace The main parties in force in the country reject serious laws and their ability to distort the consensus of the ( 6 + 6 ) committee, especially Khalifa Haftar, It has been confirmed that Aqila Saleh’s reservations about the laws relate to an issue that determines the fate of Haftar in the electoral process which is the timing of renunciation of American citizenship, Will it be before the second round of elections, as stated in the Presidential Elections Law, which was approved by the committee? As for after the victory of the dual-national candidate, as demanded by Haftar and his supporters, Aqila Saleh was late in going to Morocco, only to attend after that with the company of Haftar’s son. Belqasim, who is in charge of political communication with the General Command . Several sources talked about pressure exerted by Haftar’s son on Aqila Saleh, in what was known as the nine points. Foremost among them was the issue of foreign nationality and linking the waiver of it to the announcement of winning the position of president, so the result was Saleh’s negative attitude towards the work of the committee and his departure Bouznika without participating in ceremony Advertising as He was decided .

Al-Dabiba in Rome

The national unity government signed several agreements in the fields of oil, gas and investment with the Italian government in the capital Rome . This came during the visit of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Al-Dabiba to the capital, And he held a meeting With his Italian counterpart, “Georgia Meloni ,” according to the platform unity government, Libya has signed Italy memorandums of understanding In the fields of oil and natural gas and joint investment in the submerged areas in the Mediterranean basin and the land areas in the Ghadames basin, It was also signed electrical connection agreements immigration and border protection, In addition to activating the two water treatment plants contracts sanitation, And an agreement to link Libya with Italy by submarine cable .

According to the unity government, The two governments discussed lifting the air embargo on Libyan civil aviation in Italy And set a deadline for that. The two sides discussed the necessary steps to establish the Libyan-Italian Higher Committee. The Libyan-Italian Economic Forum was held on the sidelines of the first meeting Committee according to the government . The government reported that Al-Dabiba stressed the need to take actual steps to facilitate the granting of visas to Libyan citizens , stressing the importance of bilateral relations between Libya. Italy, Support and development in all fields to achieve the common interests of the two peoples .

This is according to the official accounts. As for what the observers suggested and referred to Platforms interested in “news behind the scenes”, The meeting is a discussion Also the issue of reducing illegal immigration, continue to fight groups that fund and support immigration across Europe, Especially Italy using the Libyan coasts , while this meeting cannot be separated from the recent Western European interest in the Libyan file. On a security and development level, starting with the visit of the head of the CIA, Then a delegation from the British Army, In addition to the expanded visit conducted by the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs to Libya , east and west .

It is no secret that the motive for this interest comes within the mixed war between the two camps. eastern and western Ukraine, Where Libya has become more like a “back garden” for the conflict of the two camps, Where the country represents spatial and economic importance that draws the attention of both sides with the intensification of the conflict between them . This comes at a time when the Italian Minister of the Interior said that his country will ask the commander of the Dignity Operations, “Khalifa Haftar.” “Greater cooperation in stopping the departure of migrants from the Libyan east, he said , adding that the contacts at the present time aim above all to support that part of Libya with regard to some economic development projects , which Haftar has requested. Explaining that from ex premature Now to determine whether this can be achieved by agreement, pointing out that this is not on the agenda yet .

Paris is watching Moscow’s steps in Libya

The “Africa Intelligence” website revealed that the French Ministry of Defense is seeking to increase the military budget and proposed 413 billion eurosJustifying this with the situation in Libya and its repercussions on the regionHe explained that the ministry submitted a report to the French parliament last May stating the need to strengthen Paris’ ability to respond to security threats in the Mediterranean region, given the presence of the Russian Wagner paramilitary forces in Libya..

Intelligence said that Libya falls within the gray military zones defined by the French Ministry of Defense. Where there should be direct action through intermediaries based on intelligence to combat terrorism and the judiciary on targets with high accuracy According to the site’s statement . As we mentioned earlier, Libya is not isolated from the conflict between Russia and the West in Ukraine .

Deportation of thousands of Egyptians from Libya

announced security forces in the eastern region Led by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Interior charged government From the parliament, Faraj Iqaim ,” the deportation of thousands of illegal immigrants from Libya towards Egypt on foot . across the common border between the two countries .
The migration process is documented clips Visible Showed a large gathering of Egyptians deported to their country across the border on foot, according to the official version: Some of these immigrants were found in warehouses including Those wishing to migrate irregularly towards Europe across the Mediterranean Sea, Add to expatriates entered country Unlawful entry Others were arrested in different regions of the Libyan East, according to What was reported by the official version of the incident sparked a high wave of controversy And rejecting what they described as humiliation wav Egyptians in Cairo, However, more than that matters Is that the operation was not realistic In the sense given by the official version, As through follow-up, it was found that the Egyptians did not They leave Libyan territory But it was done Documenting a clip of them while crossing from one of the main roads east of the city of Tobruk without completing their journey towards the crossing, which is likely to be The process was exploited by an internal party Parliament for the purpose of adding value for the operation launched in Tobruk within weeks past against manifestations of crime and trade drugs and dens Include those interested in immigration illegality .

the summary .. Senussi trial postponed for the fourth time

A member of the pleading team reported on the head of the Libyan Intelligence Service during Gaddafi’s rule, Abdullah Al-Senussi, Ahmed Nashad , to postpone the trial of his client Al-Senussi, Indicating in previous times that the reason for the postponement was the failure of his client to attend the session due to what he described as the refusal of the party that arrested him. brought to the meeting, It is the deterrent device for combating terrorism and organized crime .

Abstract on the topic of elections

It was expected to reinforce the feud The current election laws initiative The mission is to launch the alternate path and proceed with activation The Batelli high-level commission that he announced in his briefing to the Security Council last February, However, the mission statement did not address this issue. Rather, he referred to the need to address the laws that were agreed upon by the ( 6 + 6 ) committee, and it is not excluded that Batelli will implement his plan if the dispute continues over Laws that the outputs of the committee (6 + 6) are basically the work of the high-level committee .

from side post the The options available today to proceed and complete the elections It seems far away in the event that the presidential elections, which seem like gambling, continue to be counted on For the leading parties who appear apprehensive and wary, Given the Libyan political equation severe complexity, the Conducting presidential elections means win one and the loss of many candidates, Also, the winner will take possession for everything And he will lose The rest what they harvested from earnings in previous years, Rather, it may exposed to target .

If connect Presidential parliamentary elections success or failure making the political process hostage to nihilistic options and conditions , It also reveals the extent of the defect in stilts The political process that took hold For elections in which naturalized foreign nationals are allowed to run and not Their renunciation of foreign nationality Unless they win .

For Abd al-Hamid Al-Dabiba , it seemed as if the current controversy had nothing to do with him And that Because the laws do not exclude him If the elections go ahead, he will participate and compete vigorously. And if it falters, he remains in his position, enjoys his powers and privileges, and can enhance his influence through understanding with Haftar .

The election file is no longer a local file, but has become one of the most important bets of the international parties on settling the conflict. This is revealed by the data issued by the UN mission and the European Union Western embassies in Libya Which unified its position in the reservation of the committee’s outputs, which means that the approval and agreement of the local parties is not sufficient to hold elections, Rather, the international position on its course And its laws very impressive.

June 16 , 2023


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