ObservatoryThe Weekly Observatory

Weekly Observatory Aug-11-2023


In this paper , we seek to shed light on a summary of the current political events during the previous period , and we aim at an analytical reading of some positions , and an attempt to understand their context and present them to those interested in contributing and raising awareness about the events and their developments.

  • “Tekala” succeeds “Al-Mishri”

The High Council of State elected member “Mohamed Tekala” as President of the Council with 67 votes, Against his rival “Khaled Al-Meshri”, who led the council for 5 previous terms.

The victory of “Takala” came during the second round after competing for the first topped by “Al-Meshri” with 49 votes, It was followed by “Tekala” with 36 votes, Then Naji Mokhtar with 36 votes, And finally the “protector” with 4 votes, And the superiority of “Takala” over “Al-Mishri” may be a surprise to some, It is expected in others, perhaps many, It is no secret that “Al-Meshri” led a conflict from within Tripoli against the Government of National Unity represented by its president, “Abdul Hamid Dabaiba”, And Igala in the rhythm of “Dabaiba” depth of “Meshri” rapprochement with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, “Aguila Saleh”, Starting with the rounds of dialogue between them, All the way to the issuance of electoral laws by the (6+6) committee in Bouznika kitchen, This is weeks after both chambers adopted the thirteenth constitutional amendment.

The adoption of the thirteenth constitutional amendment by the High Council of State came in a session followed by a fierce debate within the members of the Council, Even the member “Amina Al-Mahjoub” accused “Al-Meshri” of passing the amendment in a session in which the quorum was not completed, This prompted her, along with other members, to lodge an appeal with the Constitutional Court, the outcome of which has not yet been made public.

The steps of the House of Representatives and the High Council of State in adopting the constitutional amendment and issuing electoral laws by the (6 + 6) committee in Morocco, The bullet ignited a real, frank and rising war by the Prime Minister “Dabaiba” towards the top of the state, Whereas, instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation not to renew and issue diplomatic passports to members of the State Council, It also prompted the security services at Mitiga Airport to prevent some members from traveling – to here – it will not seem excluded that “Dabaiba” had a hand in the loss of “Al-Meshri” the post of President of the High Council of State, Without forgetting the controversy he had with the members of his Council during the session of adopting the aforementioned constitutional amendment.

Al-Mishri had led the High Council of State for 5 previous states with a specific vision and a specific path, He had pursued it with the House of Representatives headed by, This, as we have indicated, is what ultimately led him to the loss of the office.

In this context, what will the next president from afar have, “Mohamed Tekala” during this period of nervousness crowded with conflicts? According to observers, “Takala” is not the owner of a project or an independent and integrated vision, and then it will crystallize its options later, but in light of a complex political composition and a sintered political climate, the bloc that opposed Al-Mishri during the stampede of the constitutional amendment and the committee (6 + 6) and the road map will be present in determining the options of Takala, and the government will also be present and strongly, and because The mission and the ambassadors of the influential countries in the Libyan conflict have reservations about the path of Al-Mishri-Aqila, as it will also be a contribution to the crystallization of the vision of Tekala and its political approach, whose most important features and pillars are expected to be a review of the political track, especially the electoral laws, to address the controversial points in them, and to exclude the option of government change from negotiation until the election laws and the rest of the requirements for holding elections are agreed.

This means a change in the roadmap announced by the previous presidency of the High Council of State, Which cannot be accepted by the House of Representatives, Therefore, the negotiated political track between the two chambers will witness a stalled and stalemate that may serve as a space for the development of “alternative” options. Attention will also be drawn to the direction of the mission and its head, Abdullah Batili, who has been declaring over the past weeks in the framework of warning against the adoption of any unilateral roadmap in the procedural and executive track. This leads to the expectation that the mission will enter the line of radical change witnessed by the Supreme Council of State, To offer alternative options and routes, Taking advantage of this occasion, Batelli had recently spoken of what he called a “high-level committee” to prepare the elections before the efforts of the heads of state and the prime minister blocked them behind the Bouznika track.

The radical change witnessed by the High Council of State may bequeath the political scene a state of stalemate, This is what the member “Amina Al-Mahjoub” indicated in clear language immediately after the victory of “Takala” that the next will be to reconsider the path of (6 + 6), Observers also believe that the political arena may witness a return to rapprochement between the Government of National Unity and the General Command of the Army of the House of Representatives, Especially after the failure of the leadership’s bet on change in the national unity government to approve the new roadmap.

The presidency of the “Tekala” of the Supreme Dome of the State remains in front of responsibilities and challenges that are not easy, Failure to offer an alternative to overcome the current political impasse may once again confuse the cards within the western Libyan front and push for a wave of violence that will then shape the political scene.

from her side, Member Amna Mutair tried to clarify some of the complications related to the future, Saying that Tekala follows in the footsteps of his predecessor itself, The goal is elections by sitting down with all parties, Mutair added that changing the presidency will not change the way the council works, and that the members make decisions, It was the Council’s work policies that it pursued. And that the presidents cannot impose their opinions and decisions on the Council – according to a statement.

  • “Kaddour” leaves the government of “Hammad” and criticizes its president

The Libyan Foreign Minister of the government of Hammad, Hafez Kaddour, submitted his resignation to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, After disagreements with the Prime Minister-designate, Osama Hammad, The resignation statement stated that Kaddour is no longer able to continue working with the current government, Because of what he called “temperament style at work and favoritism in commissioning”, Kaddour added that the current government is going against the direction of the national consensus project. and they lack efficiency and ability to perform, Pointing out that there is a highly funded agenda that addresses the project of forming a government for all Libyans, By pumping money and weapons in order to continue to destabilize security in Libya, And work on its instability through foreign countries and through armed groups and others – according to statements quoted by him.

Hammad had issued a decision, Earlier , By naming “Abdul Hadi Al-Hawij” Minister Plenipotentiary for Foreign Affairs to the Prime Minister, The decision stipulated the cancellation of what is contrary to the name “Hawij” in reference to the exemption of “pots”, Al-Hawij held the same position in the government of Abdullah Al-Thinni, He worked with the Gaddafi regime until his last days in Tripoli, While Kaddour previously served as Libya’s ambassador to the European Union during the Presidential Council during the presidency of Fayez al-Sarraj. Prior to that, he served as Libya’s ambassador to Italy under Gaddafi.

  • Year-to-date expenditure and revenue (7 months)

The Central Bank of Libya revealed the total revenues and expenditures of the Libyan government since the beginning of 2023 until the end of July, Where revenues amounted to 62.8 billion dinars, Expenditures amounted to 47 billion dinars.

Revenues from the sale of oil were the largest source of income, It amounted to 45.3 billion dinars, Followed by oil royalties worth 6.0 billion dinars, Then tax revenues worth 361 million dinars, and customs revenues of 159 million dinars, and telecommunications revenues of 210 million dinars, And fuel revenues in the local market worth 120 million dinars, Other revenues of KD 229 million ( as shown in the following figure ):

Revenues from the sale of oilOil royaltiesTax revenuesCustoms revenuesTelecom RevenueFuel revenuesOther income
LYD 54.3 billion6.0billion LYDLYD 361 Mill159 million LYD 210 million LYD120 million LYD 229 million LYD
Total Revenue = 62.8 billion LYD : Period 1 January – 31 July 2023

As for expenditures , salaries were the largest items, amounting to 28 billion dinars, followed by administrative expenses with a value of 5 billion dinars, then support with a value of 11 billion dinars, then development with a value of 2.5 billion dinars, and then emergency with a value of zero dinars.

( as shown in the following figure ), The central bank reported that foreign exchange use during the same period exceeded $23 million.

Payroll itemItem of administrative expensesSupport ItemDevelopment itemEmergency Clause
28 billion LYD5 billion LYDLYD 11 Billion2.5 billion LYDZero LYD
Total Agreements = 47 billion LYD : Period from 1 January to 31 July 2023

The distribution of the expenses of the executive and legislative councils and their subordinate bodies in the same time period is as follows:

Council of MinistersParliamentPresidential CouncilSupreme State
1.6 billion LYD894 million LYD344 million LYD24 million LYD
Total expenses = 2.862 billion LYD: period 1 January – 31 July 2023

This distribution indicates that the Council of Ministers is the largest beneficiary of the state budget, Followed by the House of Representatives, Then the Presidential Council, Then the High Council of State.

  • Foreign oil companies lift force majeure status in Libya

The National Oil Corporation of Libya announced, Received a notification from the Italian companies “Eni” and the British “British Petroleum”, on Lifting the Force Majeure Situation for the Resumption of Exploration and Contractual Obligations in the Ghadames Basin Areas A-B and Marine Plot C.

ENEC also announced that it had received another notification from the Algerian company “Sonatrach” of its lifting of force majeure and the resumption of exploration activities in the plots granted to it in the Ghadames Basin area. This step is positive for the Libyan economy. Where it will contribute to increasing oil and gas production, and reduce dependence on foreign imports, The Italian company “Eni” had announced in 2014, cancellation of force majeure in onshore (A&B) and offshore (C) exploration areas, After completing the security risk assessment, Ensure the security conditions in the areas where the exploration programme will be implemented.

Eni is one of the largest companies operating in the field of oil and gas in Libya, Where it owns 42.5% of the production quota, It accounts for 80% of domestic gas production.

  • Sahara swallows migrants on Libyan-Tunisian border

The Libyan border guard forces and the 10th Brigade tasked with protecting the area extending near the border of Tunisia announced, The situation is out of control in the context of the flow of foot migrants deported from the Tunisian side to Libya, Coinciding with the arrival of death statistics issued by the Libyan Red Crescent and the Emergency Support and Medical Authority, along with the National Safety Authority, to dozens.

Since the migrant crisis erupted weeks ago, border guards have been demanding, by providing four-wheel drive motorcycles, In order to reach the rugged desert places that prevent the entry of cars.

While the finger of accusation continued to be pointed at the Tunisian authorities from international organizations and news sites, In addition to the Ministry of Interior Libya, Hundreds of migrants were deliberately displaced in desert-cut areas on the Libyan-Tunisian border after a brawl broke out in the Tunisian city of Sfax before resulting in the death of a young Tunisian by some Africans in the region.

In a joint meeting between the Minister of Interior in charge of the Government of National Unity, “Imad Trabelsi”, And his counterpart, the Tunisian Minister of Interior, “Kamal al-Fiki” on Wednesday, August 9, It was announced that a consensual solution had been reached to end the problem of illegal immigrants in the border area between the two countries. Libya should receive 150 immigrants, Tunisia receives 126 of them, It was also agreed to facilitate and accelerate work at the Ras Jedir border crossing, and facilitate entry procedures for citizens, In addition to solving the problem of the similarity of the names of Libyan citizens with the Tunisian authorities, Thus, the Tunisian state has exported under the “imposition of a fait accompli” part of its problem with illegal immigrants to the Libyan state.

  • Hannibal Gaddafi is the focus of debate between Libya and Lebanon

Attorney General Al-Siddiq Al-Sur called on the Lebanese judicial authorities to extradite Muammar Gaddafi’s son Hannibal, who is detained in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. To the Libyan authorities, He stressed that the Libyan judiciary prevents the extradition of its citizens for trial abroad in cases of crimes and misdemeanors, with the possibility of trying them internally.

The photo demands came after statements made by the Special Rapporteur in the case of the disappearance of “Musa al-Sadr” and his deputies inside Libya, In it, he stressed that the release of Hannibal Gaddafi requires full disclosure of Sadr’s fate and his return to his country, Lebanon. Hannibal’s case had received interaction on social media pages, After his own defense team announced his deteriorating health, ill-treatment and hunger strike. In response, The Special Rapporteur on the disappearance of al-Sadr and his two companions, Hassan al-Shami, said that Hannibal confessed to the presence of al-Sadr alive for 4 years somewhere in the Janzour area, west of the capital, Tripoli. And that the story that Sadr then traveled to Rome “is nothing but a lie and a play done by Moussa Koussa and others,” according to the expression of Shami, Hannibal was only two years old at the time of al-Sadr’s disappearance.

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