A military coup in Niger and its repercussions on Libyan national security

Preface

Less than a week later, Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin said  that “in the next phase there will be a  strong focus on launching expansion in Africa” in a Russian attempt to craft the dream of its African influence that it seeks to, It extends  horizontally across the Group  of Five Sahel States  – G 5 – (Mauritania – Burkina Faso – Chad – Mali – Niger), From Mauritania  on the Atlantic coasts in the  west, To  Eritrea  east where the coasts  of the   Red Sea, Passing through  the countries of Sudan  and Central  Africa , And  its  vertical  extension to the north on the  Libyan coast to have access to the warm waters of the southern Mediterranean, To form an inverted letter (T), In a fierce rivalry with France, along its historical colonies.

But Niger remained the knot of the Russians in the manufacture and completion of this  map, Due to  the large French presence in it, Which made it the center  of its operations in Central Africa  and the region, Through  its  establishment of 4 major military bases in it, In addition to the American presence at the five bases, in addition  to two sites for security cooperation, More than any country in the western part of the African continent.

Given  the strategic importance of Niger for France, especially  in the field of uranium mining, There is another reason for the close  alliance shown by  the man of France, “Mohamed Bazoum”, Which was embodied in his haste to embrace the French forces withdrawing from  Mali  , Burkina  Faso  and Central  Africa, and high coordination  with  the French  authorities on various issues, especially in the field of security.

The beginning of the coup

Niger witnessed last  Wednesday morning, July 26, 2023, A rebellion of members  of the Presidential Guard in which they  detained the President of Niger, “Mohamed Bazoum  ”  (in reaction  to the dismissal of the commander of the Presidential  Guard earlier  ), For reformatory reasons and  the fulfillment  of some  demands, Then, late in the evening of the same day, A number of military leaders  and soldiers announced  on  state television  the dismissal  of  President Mohamed Bazoum , He also announced the closure of the country’s borders with its  neighbors, the dissolution  of the constitution, And the suspension of all the work of  institutions in the  country, And curfews  in the whole country, And this would be the fifth coup in the history of modern Niger.

In a repeated scenario  by the military in all their coups against the legislative authority and the civil state, Throughout the history of military coups in the modern era, Thus, the indicator  of the worsening  of the coup has taken a dangerous dimension  on the future of the state  and the Sahel and Sahara region ,  which has not ceased to follow the  coup  stations.

In the television commercial, Colonel Amadou  Abderrahmane , an air force official behind him  shows nine  uniformed   officers  from senior  members of the National Guard,    presidential Guard, Among them  is the Deputy  Chief of the General  Staff, according  to  the New York Times, ” We, the defence  and security forces,  We decided to end the system you know,” “This comes in the wake of the continued deterioration of the  security situation and economic and social mismanagement  ,” he added. He also said that “all the country’s  institutions have been suspended.”

But the President of the Council  and its members were not announced as of writing this report on the morning of July 28, Which makes the situation even more ambiguous. Amid the circulation of several names  that could be  behind the coup process, they will be announced later.

In another  statement attributed to the military  command of the Nigerien Armed Forces composed of the Chief of the General Staff, chiefs of staff of armies, Following a meeting held yesterday, Wednesday, July 26, 2023  , in which it confirmed  its accession to the declaration  of the removal of the President of the  Republic, And that its  decision was  motivated by the preservation  of the physical integrity of the President of the  Republic  and his family, And to avoid a deadly  confrontation between  the different forces that may cause a bloodbath  , On the one hand, the safety of the population is endangered.

On the other hand, In order to maintain the cohesion of the Nigerien Armed Forces, decided to subscribe to the declaration of the National Council for the Protection of the Fatherland CNSP, The General Staff warned against any external military  intervention, whatever its source, would  risk  serious consequences  , As the Authority called, All security and defense forces  to continue to focus on their missions and maintain  their known  combat capability to continue   the fight against terrorism  and  organized crime – according to  their    statement.

Who are the leaders of the coup:

By declaring the coup and the names reported according to the “New York Times,” There will be three military forces that unite to isolate President Bazoum. It is the Presidential Guard and the National Guard with the Chief of Staff  , Thus, there will be strong  names  that could be at the head of the military council.

Among the officers who will likely not be absent from the membership of the Military Council, The expected announcement – as stated by some observers – the commander of the presidential guard, the powerful general “Omar Chiani”,  the mysterious man as he is called,  whose name  has emerged since  the presidential  guard  moved to besiege  the palace, He is one of the most prominent leaders close to President  Bazoum,  as well as Colonel  “Ibrah  Amadou  Bacharo”, And General “Musa Salah Parmo” – Commander of the Special Forces, And the commander of the National Guard, “Ahmed Seidian,” The name of General Salifu Modi was also mentioned. Former Chief of Staff of the Army, Who was removed by President Bazoum and appointed ambassador recently.

Some observers think that one of two people will head the new military council. Either General Omar Cheibani, commander of the Presidential Guard, Or General Salifu Modi, former Chief of Staff, It seems that the luckiest, as observers have said, is the naming of the former chief of staff, General  “Salifu Modi” to be at the head of the ruling military council.

Who is General Salifu Modi ? Born in October 1962, He completed his foundation studies in Niamey, then joined the Military College in Ivory Coast, from which he graduated in 1983. He joined the  Nigerian Army after completing his specialized military training in  Cameroon  , France  and Madagascar, He progressed  in the military  ranks until he reached the rank of lieutenant colonel in 1998, After that, he was appointed commander of the Republican Guard for a period of 10 years, then commander of the staff of the ground forces.

won many national honors, In 2011 he became  his country’s military attaché  in Germany, In 2018 he was promoted to the rank of  general, In 2020, he was appointed Chief  of Staff, in 2023 he was  dismissed from his post after a visit to Mali,   After   His request to President  Bazoum  and the government  to increase  cooperation  with  Russia  in order to   fight  terrorism, He was nominated to be his country’s  ambassador to the UAE to remove him from the military  and political scene in Niger,  “Has the man returned to revenge?”

Analysis of the event  and its repercussions on Libyan national security

Writings trying to cover the event rolled in. It assumes  and discusses the various dimensions and repercussions  of it, In doing so, we found that  we at the Libyan Center  for Security and Military Studies will present an attempt  to read  the events and record the following:

• It should be noted that, Some analyses go on to estimate France’s  loss  of an important  ally, And for  another Francophone  country  like  Burkina Faso, and Mali, and Central  Africa, This  is in  the perception that the  coup came  as a result of  hidden Russian  support  and coordination , This  means  the rise of Russia’s growing influence in West and Central  Africa  at the expense  of the French rooster, which is not satisfied with Niger’s  uranium mines.
• This does not mean, The absence of an analysis  and another  contrary  opinion  denies any possibility  of  a Russian  role  in the coup,  and that these  analyses are only inspired by previous contexts and fiction and nothing more. Because France and its  military bases spread on Nigerian territory, In addition to the American military presence in a number of military facilities  and bases, They will not allow  the existence  of  other Russian  follies in the region,  especially  since Niger  is considered  a center  for AFRICOM  forces in  the  Sahel and Sahara region . It will not  be  easy to give it  up, And that the exit  of the circle  of putschists will only hurt in Paris by virtue of  the previous association  and discipline.
• The collapse of Mohamed Bazoum’s Arab  project by continuing  to rule Niger  for a second term  , And the creation of a new  role  and reality for Niger  at the regional and international levels  in light of its  alliances and coordination with  the  historical ally France.
• The Libyan border  with  Niger is exposed to a new security dimension, It carries  the omen of exploding  dangerous security  files , Related to terrorism  , the Tuareg file and the files of the Arab tribes, And the files of smuggling, robbery  and illegal  immigration, which threatens Libyan national security, especially  in the south, He emphasizes that  Chaos has become  Besiege the country  ali  Along the southern border  , perhaps  Hurry up  Libyan Foreign Ministry  To issue  Statement Invites  in it to the necessity  Do not exceed  track  Democratic in any change  Seek it  People  Niger,  For a level guide  Worry about the future  Relations between  Two  , prospects  which  She was  you ring  to her  The Libyan state from its relations with Niger led by Bouazum  From which the future of the transport of goods will be determined  between  Duty Free Zones  between  Two and promising Libyan  investments for Libyan businessmen in Niger.
• Naturally , The possibility  of the impact  of what happened in Niger on the south of Libya Specifically  on the tribe of “Awlad Suleiman”, to which  President  Bouazum belongs , And the eyes  are on knowing  their reaction, Because  the evidence of close  connection is not in doubt, The contribution of the Libyan border to the feeding of large areas of northern Niger with goods  and foodstuffs  will  make them  suffer from severe economic and social vulnerability. Especially if we know that a significant  part of the businessmen  who control the transport  and smuggling trade   of Niger, They are from the same tribe as President  Bouazum.
• noteworthy, The success of this  coup will be  the fifth  coup  in the country’s   history since independence. But  with the difference that it came after the first experience of a peaceful transfer of power, so what happened confirms  what is being circulated  that   the  elections are nothing more than   a waste  of time  and a waste  of public money,   As long as  its  results are not  binding on the military, He emphasizes  saying, That the military  indeed have  political power and influence, And that the people, as usual  , are deprived of the will  with the presence of the army machine.
• Extreme apprehension and caution of the Chadian authorities  about the repercussions and consequences  of this coup on Chad  and the region in general, The impact  of the cross-border identity issue   in  the Sahel and Saharan  countries  will be  a starting point and a  ground  for  more chaos  and unrest  that  have been separated from the Chadian state. Where she suffered from it again and again  , And this will be  another danger on the  southern  Libyan border, for the social bond between the two countries.

Different responses and positions

  Internally . After the coupists confirmed their control over the state, And the trend  to form an interim government under the influence of a  military council, The President of Niger, “Mohamed Bazoum,” confirmed, detained by  putschists  in Niamey, He refuses to give up the democratic gains that the country has made during the recent period  , Bazoum  said in a message via  the Twitter platform, “The gains made  after a  long struggle will be preserved, All  Nigeriens who love  democracy  and freedom will be keen on that.”

As  announced   Minister of Foreign  Affairs of the Government of Bazoum, Mr. “Hashim Massoud”  in a tweet  on Twitter   ، himself as  interim president of Niger, Calling for a general  mobilization against the coup, He appealed to all  patriots to  confront  what he described as a risky adventure    for the country.

While  many  protests  came out  rejecting the coup and supporting the elected  president, but they were directed  by  the fire of the forces supporting the  putschists,  On the other hand, demonstrators supporting the army and the coup came out. Some of them stormed the headquarters of the ruling  party and burned   its contents.

Externally. The United  Nations  and ECOWAS crossed, its rejection of the coup against the legitimate elected authority, African countries  also condemned, In addition to the countries  of France, the  United  States and the European Union, Military coup d’état in Niger, She called for a return to the elected democratic system in the country.

Finally … Events  and news  are still coming from  Niger  , In a tug-of-war between  the two parties to the  conflict, Also  , the  reactions  of the countries of the region rejecting  the coup continue, But we believe that this coup will continue on  its way  to power, Repeating  the same scene of military coups that the region is famous for, The reactions shall not have any role in preventing it or standing against it, With waiting and anticipation, To announce the military council and its president in the coming days.

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