The Weekly Observatory

The Weekly Observatory May 31 – 2023

A weekly report monitoring media and periodicals’ leaks on Libyan affairs, issued by the Libyan Center for Security and Military Studies



In this paper , we seek to shed light on a summary of the ongoing political, security and military events during the previous period of time , in which we aim at an analytical reading of some positions and events, trying to understand its context, Presenting it to those interested to contribute to raising awareness about the course of events and their developments.

Allegations of the “new government”

In addition to what the Speaker of Parliament, Aguila Saleh, announced during the past two weeks, In an interview with Al-Arabiya TV, On the imminent formation of a new government to supervise the elections immediately after the Electoral Law Preparation Committee (6 + 6) finished preparing them in their meetings held in Bouznika, It coincided with what was stated by the deputy from the city of Zawiya, Ali Bouzraiba, In an interview with Al Arabi 21 newspaper, That there are intensive meetings at home and abroad to form a new government, And with the confirmation of the “Turkish Anadolu Agency”, Citing sources she described as “informed politicians.” “There are arrangements to form a new government.”

But what is new, according to Anadolu Agency, That this government formation is now being arranged by the head of the national unity government, Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba. And the commander of the armed forces affiliated with the House of Representatives, Khalifa Haftar, Through an agreement that brings together the interests of the two.

And the Turkish agency separates, She says: The agreement provides for Dabaiba to head the next government. In exchange for his waiver of pressure against Haftar’s candidacy for the upcoming elections, In addition to Bashagha assuming the position of deputy prime minister, which the latter refused. According to the agency, While sources close to Bashagha denied to us the validity of what the Turkish agency reported, They asserted that Bashagha would be at the head of a future authority. While private sources from the East confirmed to us the veracity of the imminent arrival of a new government. without adding further details, Except that they reported that the presidential candidate and former member of the General National Congress for the city of Al-Marj, Al-Sharif Al-Wafi, He will be the deputy prime minister of the next government for the eastern region.

and on the whole, This novel does not appear to be innovated or abnormal. As the context informs us of the existence of previous deals between Haftar and Dabaiba. The most prominent of these was the assignment of Al-Dabaiba Farhat bin Qadara as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Oil Corporation. He is one of the supporters of Operation Dignity.

Aerial bombardment on the city of Zawiya

After the tense security situation in the city of Zawiya and the popular demands to reduce the manifestations of crime within the city, Violent and medium clashes erupted between brigades in the region. The scene in the city developed to the level of directing several air raids via drones by “the drone unit of the Prime Minister of National Unity in his capacity as Minister of Defense.” These raids sparked widespread controversy at the popular and elite levels. After the first day of directing the raids, the Head of the Supreme Council of State, Khaled Al-Mashri – who hails from the city of Al-Zawiya – announced his rejection of the air strikes. Stressing that it took place without the knowledge of the Presidential Council in its capacity as the Supreme Commander of the Army, At the same time, he called on him to withdraw the powers of leadership of the march from Dabaiba. Al-Mishri, who rejected what he described as a violation of “Turkish neutrality”, In an attempt, of course, to keep the Turks away from the front that he constantly opens in the face of Dabaiba, He also affirmed, In a televised local interview, These selective strikes target one party to the exclusion of the other in the city of Zawiya. “Selectiveness” was also talked about by the movement to correct the path in the city. When they called on the government to fight crime without discrimination, According to what they announced in televised statements.

It is known that the unity government will deal with the scene selectively or with a policy of neutralizing and buying off opponents. This was confirmed by well-informed local sources before the air strikes were launched, that the government’s escalation came after al-Dabaiba’s failure to win over the “militias” that control the fuel and commit crime in the city.

in contrast , The national unity government officially adopts corner strikes. Confirming that it comes as part of a process aimed at combating crime, And smuggling fuel from the city only, According to her saying.

According to observers, The government’s narrative represents part of the truth, not its absolute. As according to the sources, The government’s disagreement with these groups is not based solely on crime. As it recently sought to establish rapprochements with Major General Osama al-Juwaili, who supports the introduction of the Fathi government into Bashagha, the capital, by force. This is supported by the appearance of Al-Juwaili’s forces weeks before the airstrikes were launched in areas southwest of the capital, during training military maneuvers. This was followed by other military maneuvers by the forces of Ayoub Bouras. With the forces withdrawing from Tripoli last January, Some described it as part of targeting al-Dabaiba’s allies inside the capital.

noteworthy, that the corner file is still open, The airstrikes are continuing sporadically until the moment these words are written. As these strikes entered their second week, After announcing the start of its second phase by Al-Adiba in a televised interview in which he appeared with his military leaders in an operations room, It appears as the drone operations room, Or, as the scene that was shown recently on the Hollywood way suggests, This leads us to this question: Air strikes only? Or will it be followed by an operation on the ground? .

militarily, Continuous air strikes are not directed unless they are followed by advances on the ground. For the earth does not separate from the sky militarily. vice versa , This is what we tried to search for. We have not yet obtained a reliable answer. But some observers, They estimated that there is an operation on the ground that will target some battalions inside the city of Zawiya during the coming days. It may extend to other cities on the west coast. In addition to the surroundings of the capital, such as Warshafana.

Based on the above, The Zawiya events cannot be isolated from the recent Turkish presidential elections. With Erdogan’s victory, Dabaiba gained more confidence. Being the current and closest ally of the Turks in the country, It is also not possible to isolate Al-Juwaili’s previous movements from the expectations that were indicating the imminent departure of Erdogan from the presidency of Turkey. What means limiting the Turkish military role in Libya? This will not happen with Erdogan remaining in power. After winning the second election round.

Bouznika “full agreement”

After arriving in Morocco, The Committee for the Preparation of Electoral Laws (6 + 6) announced the achievement of complete consensus regarding the points related to the election of the head of state. and members of the National Assembly, She explained that the next legislative authority would be composed of two chambers, the House of Representatives. Senate.”

The committee said in its first statement from the Moroccan city of Bouznika, The organization of legislative elections, simultaneous procedures, Referring to the formation of a unified government that paves the way for electoral events throughout the country, The committee added that progress has been made in defining and distributing seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate according to electoral districts. In addition to how to involve political parties in the House of Representatives elections through lists or individual nominations.

The statement also stressed the committee’s determination to complete the preparation of the draft electoral laws in the Morocco meeting. Stressing that “the current Libyan reality imposes the primacy of the citizen’s interest over narrow calculations, by forming a unified government, pave the way for electoral events in all countries, and deal with it responsibly and transparently.” In the words of the statement, And after that, The Russian agency “Sputnik” said that sources revealed to it the most prominent amendments to the presidential election law after the agreement of the (6 + 6) committee. According to its sources, The committee agreed on 80% of the basic articles of the electoral laws, including the election of the president. And the National Assembly with its two chambers: the Parliament and the Senate.

And among the most prominent amendments that were agreed upon in the electoral law related to the presidency, It is a run-off between the first two places in the candidates, Even if the candidate gets 50 + 1, It runs a run-off with the next candidate. According to Sputnik. With regard to the elections for Parliament and the Council of the Nation, Dual nationals will not be allowed. He is required to submit a declaration that he does not hold any other nationality, According to the Russian agency.

DC clashes

Against the background of two kidnappings exchanged between the two forces, Clashes broke out between the Deterrence Service and the 444th Brigade. In different areas in the center of the capital, Tripoli, The clashes, which were intermittent until the early hours of Monday, May 29, did not result in significant material or human casualties, According to what was reported by the Libyan emergency service.

Clashes inside the capital are a familiar scene, with multiple sides and different “heads”. And instead of merging them into one stream, The one force is divided into two or more forces. Brigade 444 was nothing but a company within the deterrence apparatus, bearing the well-known name “20-20”. Then I want her to infiltrate under the Chief of Staff. And the Ministry of Defense and the name of the army, which is what happened, But it is under severe rift and sharp division with its mother womb, the “deterrence force”, with which it entered into direct armed conflict for the first time since its establishment.

This is how AFRICOM portrayed Haftar’s support for “Hemeti”

A new report published by the “African Defense Platform” magazine, affiliated to the command, “AFRICOM”, revealed, Two teams, “Khalifa Haftar and the mercenaries of the Wagner Group,” support the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, “Hamedti,” in his war in Sudan.

The report indicated that this support includes the delivery of ammunition, and missiles to the Rapid Support Forces, In addition to exchanging intelligence information, Saddam’s supervision. son of Khalifa Haftar, On the process of supplying support forces with thousands of barrels of oil per day, In its report, which was also based on analysts, the magazine stated, Noting that Libya could serve as a rear base for the Support Forces fighters, What threatens to internationalize the conflict to the region, According to the report.

The report considered that Libya had become a supply center, and a major supply on the black market for weapons, food and fuel, and fighters, and dollars, and an ideal base for launching attacks, Pointing out that in the event of the withdrawal of “Hemedti” and his forces from Khartoum to Darfur, The tribal fighting within the Darfur region, the collapse of the peace agreement, They threaten to drag Libya into a regional conflagration.


The Turkish Anadolu Agency claims , Citing sources described as well-informed politicians, That there is an upcoming government that will be headed by Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba, Through a deal with Khalifa Haftar, guarantee the interests of the two, Where Al-Dabiba wants to continue in power, This is what Haftar will provide him. While the latter wants to ease the restrictions that follow him in the way of his future candidacy for the elections regarding his dual nationality and being a military man, According to his memorandum, “Anatolia”.


On the corner city targeting crime, But she is not isolated from politics. Where some sources confirm that, In addition to the high crime rate in the city of Zawiya, Some forces within the city concluded understandings with Major General Osama Al-Juwaili. In order to enter the capital and enable the government of Parliament there, This prompted al-Dabaiba to deal firmly with these formations, which are not far from the capital. Especially with previous political assurances about the advent of a new government as soon as the (6 + 6) committee finished preparing the election laws.

A new report published by the “African Defense Platform” magazine of the command “AFRICOM” revealed, Two teams, “Khalifa Haftar and the mercenaries of the Wagner Group,” support the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, “Hamedti,” in his war in Sudan, The report indicated that this support includes the delivery of ammunition, And missiles to the support forces, in addition to the exchange of intelligence information and the supervision of “Saddam,” the son of “Khalifa Haftar,” over the process of supplying the support forces with thousands of barrels of oil per day.

May 31 , 2023


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