What are the repercussions of the new normalization around Libya?
Old study published on 03 March – 2023
For years, Libya and its neighboring countries in the south and west remained reluctant to attempts a normal penetration with Israel. However, it seems that the recent changes in the policies of many of Libya’s immediate neighbors are taking another path. Events in the region are rapidly evolving towards arranging meetings for a group of ruling regimes with the Israeli regime and seeking full normalization, which imposes a fait accompli that cannot be ignored.
After the circumstances of the killing of former Chadian President Idriss Deby, which caused his son Muhammad, nicknamed (Kaka), to come to power directly to replace his father. Which was the incident of his death one day after winning the sixth round of the presidential elections, Israel’s steps towards normalization with the new regime accelerated. In a country that was considered among the countries aspiring to join the League of Arab States one day.
This also coincided with the dangerous development in the Sudanese normalization file with Israel, as the unconfirmed news turned into confirmation of the visit of the Israeli Foreign Minister to Khartoum on February 2, 2022. In a dangerous development, two neighboring countries of Libya join large-scale normalization processes and in light of unstable regimes in transitional stages, against the will of the broad masses of their peoples. This raises concern about the possibility of this happening in Libya or the repercussions of these normalization processes on Libya, especially in terms of military and security. Where Israel promotes its great capabilities to provide these countries, their armies, and their security services with military and security technologies, large parts of which focus on strengthening the ability of these agencies to confront opposition and protests at home.
As for the other southern neighbor, which is Niger, for years, Government officials and Israeli media speculate that Niger will normalize relations with Israel. In this regard, they cite what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented in February 2019. During a meeting with leaders of the Jewish community in the United States, he pointed to a map of the African continent. He classified the countries of the continent into four categories based on their relations with Israel. The country of Niger was from the category of “Possible Relationships”.
The Hebrew newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth” did not hide that the Israeli entity is still trying, through secret contacts with Niger, to Reaching an agreement to normalize relations between them. He is aware of the burdens of the Nigerien state and the difficult living conditions of its population of approximately 25 million. and what they suffer from the consequences of “terrorism”, poor security conditions, In March 2021, the Israeli Minister of Intelligence stated that four countries are moving towards normalizing their relations with Israel, including Niger, adding that “there were elections in Niger that were won by a pro-American candidate, and this increases the chances of normalizing relations.”
As for the other neighbor, Tunisia, the performance indicators of the Tunisian President, Kais Saied, give the impression of a volatile and mysterious personality. Its opponents do not expect it to withstand the wave of normalization. Especially after the opposition’s accusations against Tunisian President Kais Saied that he had retracted the slogan “Normalization is treachery” that he had previously raised. She described him as seeking to open bridges of relations with the Israeli entity. This is after his incomprehensible haste to sign a controversial international protocol related to the protection of the marine environment and coastal areas in the Mediterranean, together with the Israeli state. Other countries such as Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Cyprus were absent from signing. They considered it an indication of the ability to respond to the level of pressures that his regime is exposed to in order to remain in power for as long as possible.
As for the eastern neighbor, Egypt, the level of its relations and connection with the Israeli entity at the current stage is more than strategic, as Israel describes General Al-Sisi as a strategic treasure, and the security and military coordination between the two sides is undisputed.
Finally, we come to a picture of a printed border belt. It is represented by the countries of Egypt, Chad, Sudan, and countries that are classified as on the way to normalization, such as Niger and Tunisia.
This paper attempts to analyze the consequences of this new normalization cordon on Libya, especially in terms of security and military, and the possibility of the involvement of Libyan military and security leaders in this normalization process in exchange for some assurances about its political future. This is in light of the stumbling block of the current transitional period and the great possibility that the elections will be postponed indefinitely, despite the international and local efforts to reach an end to the transitional period and its current problems.