The Weekly Observatory July 15 – 2023

Preface

In this paper , we seek to shed light on a summary of the current political events during the previous period , and we aim at an analytical reading of some positions , and an attempt to understand their context and present them to those interested in contributing and raising awareness about the events and their developments.

• Despite its roots… Wagner remains in Libya at the behest of the Kremlin

The US “Bloomberg” agency said that the Russian Kremlin intends to allow the “Wagner” group of “Yevgeny Prigozhin” to maintain its extensive operations in Africa, The agency quoted undisclosed sources as saying that Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the African continent, which is rich in resources. In conjunction with the rebellion that took place in Russia, The agency added, based on its sources, The agreement took place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the “Wagner” leaders in a dialogue that lasted for more than three hours. The first briefed him on Wagner’s foreign policies in Africa and how to make its way to the continent at the expense of the United States and “the former colonial power France,” According to the agency.

The agency asked about the future of Wagner’s operations in Sudan and Libya, given that “Prigozhin” is helping the Rapid Support Forces led by “Hamedti” in its rebellion against the Sudanese army. At a time when Moscow maintains its relationship with the Khartoum military leadership, at its discretion.

The agency went on to say, The Kremlin managed to pursue this dual policy by secretly deploying mercenaries. It is the same approach that I also used in oil-rich Libya. Explaining from the same “sources” that the United States is aware of the order to deliver weapons, which include portable missiles from Wagner stocks in Libya, to the group’s members who are in Sudan. Pointing out that the Russian intelligence is betting on both sides in Sudan in an attempt to benefit in the future. According to the agency. from her side, The British Guardian newspaper revealed a visit by a Russian envoy to “Khalifa Haftar” in Benghazi, days after the Wagner Company rebellion in Russia, He reassured him that Moscow would keep more than 2,000 fighters, technicians and workers from the Wagner Company in Libya.

The Guardian quoted a “former Libyan official,” Saying that the Russian envoy, “Khalifa Haftar” called not to worry, And he confirmed that Wagner’s work mechanism in Libya will remain as it was. The Russian envoy said, the people on earth, The money resources from Dubai and the resources allocated to Libya will remain the same. According to what was reported by the newspaper, The Guardian added that the movement of Wagner elements was not affected by the conflict in Moscow. It has not undergone any change. With the exception of the deployment of about (50) fighters on the Libyan-Sudanese borders.

This exposure is understandable in the Russian context, which requires staying in the African chains extending from the heart of the continent all the way to the shores of Libya. As it approaches the side of the European continent, in which Moscow is keen to be present. Moscow can also combine reducing the role of Wagner as well as exploiting and employing it according to its vision and strategy. Especially after being reassured by the failure of the rebellion in Moscow, And the Republic of Belarus enters “Belarus”. As a mediator between the leadership and Wagner, which eventually resulted in the exile of the leader of the mercenary group outside Russia.

In this regard, The Moscow Federal Security Service had published photos, As soon as Yevgeti’s house was raided, showing his presence in military installations, and security leadership buildings in Libya, As observers asserted, they investigated the pictures, that some of them were taken at Haftar’s headquarters, This means that it was brought to Libya within the framework of deep and high-level consultations.

• again.. Oil is a card in the Libyan conflict

After the arrest of the former Minister of Finance of the Government of National Accord “Faraj Boumtari” in Tripoli, A group from the “Zawiya” tribe, from which Boumtari hails, closed the El Feel oil field. Before another group in the city of Ubari shut down the Sharara field, In solidarity with the incident of “Boumtari” and his “Zawiya” tribe, According to a statement issued by them.

This closure process – which came as a surprise, especially with the western need for Libyan oil barrels at this particular time – has negative effects on several aspects. economy, and electricity. The Sharara field alone produces about (240) thousand barrels. The El Feel field produces about 80,000 barrels. As a result, the General Electricity Company announced that it was not responsible for the possible effects on the work of the network in all parts of the country. While the Minister of Oil in the unity government, “Mohammed Aoun,” issued a warning against the closure. Pointing out that the first affected by this measure is the people.

In a similar vein, The parliament-designated government headed by “Osama Hammad” had earlier threatened to shut down oil. in protest against the unfair distribution of wealth, According to her, This triggered a wave of local and international interactions (which we referred to in the previous weekly paper) that eventually led to the formation of the Presidential Council of a higher financial committee to monitor the government’s public spending in Tripoli.

note : The closures have been lifted and pumping has been re-pumped for the El Feel and Sharara fields at the time of writing this weekly monitor.

• “Khargat New Way” raises a controversy within the State Council

The President of the High Council of State put forward a new road map, It carries with it the advent of an executive authority that is miniature and whose formation takes into account fair geographical representation. Without prejudice to the standards of integrity, The first track included the file of the executive authority, The second track is national data and identity verification. The third is the constitutional path. To conclude the proposed map security track.

The map states, to start the procedures for forming the new unified government, As soon as the two councils approve the map, the door for candidacy to head the new government opens for a period of 20 days. According to the map, the mandate of the Presidential Council ends with holding elections according to the timetable set in the Constitutional Declaration, which is 240 days.

the map says, In the event that elections cannot be held for any reason, The Presidential Council shall be reconstituted by agreement between the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of the State. According to the mechanism by which the prime minister was appointed, This is done through lists that include a president and two deputies from the various lists. According to the map, the joint military committee (5 + 5) will develop the necessary security plans. locating, and the requirements necessary to secure the body to be set up by the Supreme Court to consider electoral appeals, The map stressed that the committee would resume its duties regarding security arrangements. In addition to entrusting it with developing a vision to unify the military establishment, To be approved by the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of the State, The committee supervises its implementation.

Note: The features of the map have been discussed here briefly – without prejudice – in line with the fact that the report is a “weekly summary” .. Refer to it in full for those who want more.

this, The Council of State announced the vote “in principle” to accept the map. With the inclusion of the comments of some members of the Council in this regard, Once the vote is announced, Conflicting statements were received from members of the Council, among those confirming that the accreditation was being carried out correctly, Another accuses Al-Mashri of passing the resolution illegally. In an incident that is not the first of its kind within the country’s legislative and advisory bodies, It is not far from being adopted, whatever the point of view of the objectors. This is in line with the prevailing position of “passing decisions”.

• Al-Dabiba on the “map” line

In this context, The security services prevented five members of the High Council of State from traveling through Mitiga airport during an incident that some observers suggested was part of the escalation by the head of the national unity government, “Abdul Hamid Al-Dabiba ,” as a step in the face of the State Council’s plan to bring in a new government. At the expense of Al-Dabiba government, Al- Al-Dabiba has previously been accused of surrounding the council’s headquarters in the capital, Tripoli, with security mechanisms, in a session that was discussing files about establishing a new government.

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