The Weekly Monitor. May 24, 2023

Preface

In this paper , we seek to shed light on a summary of the current political events during the previous period , and we aim to read an analytical view of some positions , and try to understand their context and present them to those interested , to contribute and raise awareness about the events and their developments.

complex scene, And the result: New government on the way!!

The Libyan scene during this period – as in any previous period – appears to be complex, full of events and centered on developments. The House of Representatives announces the suspension of Bashagha from heading his designated government and referring him for investigation, amid accusations by members of parliament of “mismanagement and failure to enter the capital.” The event that came as a surprise occurs in several contexts. And as part of the press leaks, we will discuss them in this paper before presenting them by shedding light on the Batelli project, which has not yet been born. Which he previously revealed in his last briefing to the Security Council at the end of February 2023, It is the “high-level committee to conduct elections.”

This year is about to 2023. for redress amid the absence of the high commission that Batelli previously spoke about before the Security Council, which he said would be destined to complete its work in the middle of this year, Specifically, the month of June. While the committee was not established from the ground up, Not to mention the fulfillment of its tasks. This absence of the “high committee” coincides with the emergence of international and local calls for the establishment of a new government that will supervise the elections as soon as the Electoral Law Preparation Committee (6 + 6) finishes its preparation. In an interview with Al-Arabiya TV, Aqila Saleh stressed the need to hold elections. calling on the local rival parties to support them, He states at the outset of his speech, They will form a new government to supervise the elections as soon as the (6 + 6) committee finishes preparing laws for it. Abdul Hameed Al-Dabaiba calls for stepping down from his position in case he wishes to run for the upcoming presidential elections.

Following this statement, Another statement by a member of the House of Representatives from the city of Zawiya, Ali Bouzraiba, comes to “Arabi 21” newspaper. affirming their endeavor to form a new government, He adds that internal and external meetings are taking place during this period, and all of them are in the pot of that new government. This proposition is in line with what was previously indicated by the UN Special Envoy to Libya. Richard Norland, when he said: “It is necessary to have an arrangement agreed upon in advance for the formation of a governmental body that will supervise the elections, supported by international monitoring such as the United Nations. And Washington is ready to deploy its cadres for this purpose in Libya.”

With regard to the identity of the candidates, Norland did not express the idea of candidacy for everyone directly, but he calls it a new description and calls for leaving the matter to the boxes when he calls for what he described as a “total alternative” that focuses on the voter’s decision rather than the candidate’s qualities. This also coincides with what the UN envoy to Libya, Abdullah Batili, said in his interview with Al-Arabiya channel recently, that candidacy should be open to all. including security and military leaders, As he says.

Washington’s envoy Norland stresses that office holders should step down from their positions if they are nominated. And the importance of reaching a political agreement between the main participating parties and respecting the results. And with this momentum, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper revealed that Cairo had sent two security delegations. one to the east of Libya and the other to the west, In an effort to contain the developments of the Libyan crisis, In order to preserve Egyptian interests, And the emphasis on the Egyptian role in the Libyan arena.

The newspaper quoted a source in the “Egyptian Committee concerned with following up the Libyan file,” that a high-ranking security delegation, Led by the CEO of the Committee, Khalifa Haftar visited the headquarters of his forces in the Al-Rajma area last week, And after the arrival of information to Cairo, Regarding differences between Haftar and Bashagha, followed by moves by the former to overthrow the latter, According to the source.

The source said that Haftar’s recent moves came after arrangements sponsored by the UAE, within the framework of forming a unified government, You are preparing for the legislative presidential elections in Libya, The source explained that the agreement sponsored by the UAE, It is based on coordination between the head of the national unity government, Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba, and Haftar. Dabaiba requires extensive amendments to his government. include the inclusion of a group of ministers, and deputy prime minister, Haftar’s nomination Provided that this entails allowing the government to exercise its functions in the eastern regions of Libya, under the control of Haftar, With its ratification by Parliament.

In the same context, Another Egyptian source familiar with the work of the “National Committee concerned with following up the Libyan file said, for “The New Arab”, The past days witnessed positive developments in terms of relations between Cairo and the national unity government headed by Dabaiba. Referring to “the recent Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement”.

The source explained, That the recent period witnessed contacts between Cairo and representatives of Al-Dabaiba, including military and security parties, It ended with Egypt sending a high-level security delegation to western Libya. In conjunction with the delegation that visited the east of the country, Where the delegation met a number of officials there, Among them is Interior Minister Imad Trabelsi.

again.. Haftar’s name appears in the Sudan conflict

Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan between the forces of Al-Burhan and Hemedti, Haftar’s name appeared on the line as one of the secret supporters of Hemeti’s forces, By sending a plane carrying military equipment, Then a CNN investigation – backed by satellite images – revealed the presence of a ground reinforcement from Libya to northern Sudan carrying military equipment to the Rapid Support Forces.

And after that, The Guardian revealed Haftar’s involvement in providing large quantities of fuel from the Sarir field in the south of the country to the Rapid Support Forces also in Sudan. In addition to several investigations and reports that we have dealt with in previous papers, And with these accusations, Haftar denied, through his official spokesperson, Ahmed Al-Mismari, the validity of what he was accused of. However, the denial was shy about those investigations, which seem to have been reflected in the statements of US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, who called Haftar and reminded him that Wagner was classified as a terrorist group, As announced by the US State Department earlier.

And noteworthy, The insertion of Wagner’s name here is due to the fact that the Rapid Support Forces are a prominent ally that embraces Wagner in the region. and allows them to prospect for gold, Movement in the region, which seems to be used as a rear base used by Moscow to blackmail Europe through several actions, of which, for example, Supporting illegal immigration operations from African regions – over which Wagner has influence – to Europe, By using the coasts of the eastern Libyan region, As we have indicated in previous papers.

The French intelligence website “Africa Intelligence” recently confirmed, “Haftar’s involvement in the Sudanese war as well. But this time with new details:

According to Intelligence, I talked about Hemedti’s Rapid Support Forces receiving partial supplies through southeastern Libya before they took control of the “Al-Jili” refinery north of Khartoum. In order to provide its forces with their positions in the center of the city, And near the capital airport. Intelligence adds, That Hemedti’s forces were relying on the Salafist “Sobol al-Salam” battalion of Khalifa Haftar’s forces, which delivers these shipments of fuel and ammunition through the border area it controls, In a previous report, the site had confirmed the existence of evidence of the movement of convoys of gasoline and weapons towards the Libyan border with Sudan, in the area controlled by Subul al-Salam members. These movements indicate that there is contact between the militia and Hemedti’s Rapid Support Forces.

The intelligence website added that a number of militia fighters from Darfur and Chad are in Libya. However, they have so far refrained from intervening in Sudan. But if the war continues there, One of the warring parties may be tempted to call them in.

In the context of talking about Wagner, It is worth noting that the G7 countries described, at their meeting in Tokyo on May 20, Wagner’s presence in Libya is increasing. expressing concern for him, It is certain that its existence is a disturbance to public security.

A new dispute between the deputies and the Supreme State

With talk of the upcoming elections, And the transfer of the Committee (6 + 6) to Morocco to carry out its tasks, Another dispute surfaced between the deputies and the Supreme Court. On the one hand, the House of Representatives appointed a head of the “Anti-Corruption Commission,” It is considered among the leadership positions and sovereign positions of common interest between the two councils. The step of the deputies is described by the Supreme State as a transgression, according to what was agreed upon, that this can only be after agreement between them. As confirmed by the Supreme State, That the designated person was not among the existing names that he referred to the House of Representatives.

This step is not new to Parliament. As long as he was alone in making the decision, Some of its members even criticized them for that. But we think that the deputies will proceed with the decision to appoint them. Without backing down as usual in dealing with deputies, As happened when they adopted the “thirteenth” constitutional amendment, which finally forced the State Council to go along with the deputies. Despite his violation of that exclusivity from the outset.

Conclusion

With the absence of talk about the “high-level committee to conduct the elections,” And the continuation of the Electoral Laws Preparation Committee (6 + 6) to continue its work and its transfer to Morocco. Bashagha was suspended from his work and branded as a loser by the members of the House of Representatives. On the surface, direct domestic and indirect international lawsuits are filtering towards a new government. Supervises the holding of elections as soon as the Committee (6 + 6) completes its preparation. This was announced by Aqeela Saleh. This was confirmed by the deputy from Zawiya, Ali Bouzraiba. He referred to him – hints and earlier – Washington’s ambassador to Tripoli Norland.

Haftar is still haunted by reports that reveal his involvement in the Sudan war. By supporting one of the parties to the conflict, which is the Rapid Support Forces led by Hemedti, And the latest of these investigations revealed what was revealed by the “Africa Intelligence” website that Haftar is using the “Subul al-Salam” battalion in Kufra to transfer support to Hamidti’s forces in northern Sudan on the border line between the two countries.

again , The House of Representatives overrides the State Council and the terms of agreement between them. By appointing a head of the Anti-Corruption Commission, without referring to the Supreme Council, This is a step that may spark disagreement between the two councils again. Perhaps days will pass and the State Council will accept it, just as it recently accepted the “thirteenth” constitutional amendment, which was unilateral and the deputies unilaterally amended it.

May 24 , 2023

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