summary:
Libya still faces major political challenges. The country is witnessing a political division between two governments. Despite all international efforts, and local to solve the political crisis, However, internal divisions and external interference prevent reaching a comprehensive solution. This, of course, serves the interests of the actors who have achieved gains in terms of influence and power. locally and internationally, Or at the level of illicit enrichment.
The political dimension
After the Abu Zneika agreement faltered, despite the fact that the parties to the (6 + 6) committee reached a final version of the agreement, However, he did not find acceptance. not at the local level, Between the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, and the President of the State Council, Khaled Al-Mashri. or at the international level.
The US Embassy issued a joint statement with the five countries Britain, France, Italy and Germany, Welcoming the statement of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, It acknowledges the efforts of the (6 + 6) committee regarding draft electoral laws. But at the same time, he did not urge the Libyan parties to deal with the outcomes of this agreement. It is worth noting that the United Arab Emirates has welcomed the agreement, This situation, in turn, was clearly reflected in the Libyan crisis. And everyone realized that the consensus in Libya is between the frontrunners of the scene. constitutes a real challenge for Libya, As all attempts at reconciliation since the beginning of the political crisis in 2014, did not succeed, And it was achieving the narrow and immediate interests of the actors in the scene.
At a time when observers are talking about a rapprochement in some files between “Abdul Hamid al-Dabiba,” the head of the national unity government, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, through mediators close to both parties. At the same time, the gap between “Aqeela and Dabiba” increases. Where Aqila insists on the need for the latter to leave the scene, And assigning a new figure to form the government to succeed Dabaiba. Perhaps this is one of the most important undisclosed reasons that led to the failure of the Abu Zniqa agreement.
Certainly, this failure serves the government of national unity and prolongs its life. Its president has invested this in the level of satisfying a spectrum active in the security and military scene by issuing a decision to establish the National Agency for Supporting Forces (we have discussed the decision
with an explanatory paper upon its issuance). As well as his international visits and the signing of memorandums of understanding with Italy, Egypt and France in the files of energy, immigration and services, In less than one month, he visited Türkiye three times. He recently placed a bank deposit in the Central Bank of Egypt in an attempt to ease the economic burden on President Sisi.
The security and military dimension
In terms of security, there are no apparent challenges that threaten the national unity government. On the contrary, the government has proven its ability to use drones in operations that the government considered securing the west of the capital, Tripoli. Specifically, the city of Al-Zawiya and its environs. Although Parliament and the government of “Osama Hammad” affiliated with it, They considered it an attack on civilians, just as it is considered political exploitation in the interest of Al-Dabaiba. However, the latter was able to absorb all the reactions. And even continued to carry out these targeted strikes, This means that the use of drones has become easier for the national unity government than before. This is considered an important strategic development and superiority.
As for the east of the country, the security services, with the help of units of the Armed Forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, carried out this. A security campaign was launched during which raids were made on dens used to collect illegal immigrants. drug trade, The campaign was successful from the point of view of those in charge of it. Despite the tribal challenges it faced (we have dealt with the campaign and its causes and repercussions in a detailed paper – you can refer to it).
On the military level, the southern region has been witnessing an unprecedented military alert for nearly two weeks. and the entry of columns of the 128th Brigade reinforced into the Libyan desert, reached the southern border of Libya, It is noteworthy here that this campaign came after a visit to the south by the son of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar “Saddam”, who is the commander of the Tariq bin Ziyad Brigade more than a month ago. during which he visited the oil fields, And some strategic locations.
Contrary to the political situation, the security situation in Libya is witnessing remarkable stability these days. Despite carrying out security operations in the east, west and south, However, it did not develop into violent confrontations. It was a limited operation. We expect this security stability to continue. Because of the balance of internal terror between the parties to the conflict.
June 12, 2023
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